Deletions and results

1. Removals against the 2025 margin

Names removed in each seat set against the margin by which the seat was won in 2025.

After the final roll

The final roll of 30 September 2025, after the names added on claims and removed on objections, set against the roll before the revision. A seat's roll before is its draft roll plus the names on its phase 1 deletion list, because the roll of June 2025 is published only as a state total.

Each reason for removal, on its own, against the margin

The phase 1 list gives the officer's reason for every name. Each reason is taken on its own here, with the number of seats where the names removed for that reason alone exceed the 2025 margin, by the alliance that won.

Could the removals have changed who won?

How the removed electors might have voted, estimated three ways, and one figure that needs no estimate at all. The count is each seat's names still off the final roll, less those entered as dead, at the seat's 2025 turnout. That count is low, because the names added after the draft include new electors, so every estimate is also run on all the names removed, with nothing added back.

2. Seats, grouped by who held them

Deletions per 100 electors, with each seat labelled by the 2020 Assembly winner, the 2024 Lok Sabha segment leader, and the 2025 Assembly winner.

Did seats with more removals swing to the NDA?

If the removals had handed seats to the NDA, the seats INDIA held in 2020 that lost the most names should have gone to the NDA most often in 2025. Here those seats are split into thirds by names removed per 100 electors.

Did the vote move where more names were removed?

Between the 2020 and 2025 Assembly elections the NDA parties gained votes across Bihar. If the removals had taken away more of INDIA's voters than the NDA's, INDIA's share should have fallen most where the most names came off the roll. Here every seat is split into thirds by names removed per 100 electors, and both elections are counted with the parties grouped as they stood in 2025.

3. Booths within the same seat

Comparing whole seats mixes politics with geography. Inside one constituency the registration officer, the villages and the pattern of migration are the same for every booth, so comparing booths there avoids that. Here the booths the NDA led in 2024 are compared with the booths INDIA led, seat by seat.

4. Parties and reserved seats

5. Seats that changed hands

Alliance that won each seat in 2020 against 2025, with the deletion rate in each cell.

The 2024 booth leaders come from Form 20, the booth-level count, and the top two parties in every Lok Sabha seat match the declared result. The NDA here is the BJP, JD(U), LJP(RV), HAM(S) and RLM, with the VIP in 2020. INDIA is the RJD, INC, the three Left parties, the VIP from 2024, and the IIP. Everything else is Other. Method.

How sure are we?

A pattern seen across all seats can weaken or turn round once seats are compared only with seats like them. Each finding here was measured again within each district, within each seat, and with Seemanchal left out.